Egyptian parliamentary election, 2011–2012

For the upper House election, see Egyptian Shura Council election, 2012.
Egyptian parliamentary election, 2011-2012
2010 ←
 28 November 2011 - 11 January 2012
498 of 508 seats to the People's Assembly of Egypt (10 seats appointed).
 
Leader Mohamed Morsy Emad Abdel Ghaffour Ahmed Hassan Said
Party Freedom and Justice Al Nour Egyptian Bloc
 
Leader El-Sayyid el-Badawi Abu El-Ezz Hareri Abou Elela Mady
Party New Wafd Revolution Continues Al-Wasat
Incumbent Prime Minister

Kamal Ganzouri
Independent
Egypt

This article is part of the series:
Politics and government of
Egypt

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An early parliamentary election is currently being held in Egypt to the People's Assembly from 28 November, 2011 - 11 January, 2012,[1] following the revolution that ousted President Hosni Mubarak, following which the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces dissolved the parliament of Egypt. Originally, the election was scheduled to be held in September 2011, but was postponed amid concerns the established parties would gain undue advantage.[2]

Contents

Background

Main articles: 2011 Egyptian revolution and Arab Spring

In late 2010, a parliamentary election was held, though it was followed by controversy and repression as well as accusations of fraud.[3]

Following similar events in Tunisia during the Arab Spring, Egyptian activists called for protesters to turn up in cities around Egypt on various specially-designated days of rages. Though violence was reported at some points, protests were largely peaceful with the army staying quiet until 10 February 2011, when calls for Husni Mubarak to resign were at their peak. The following day, Vice President Omar Suleiman announced Mubarak's resignation from the presidency while turning power over to the military. The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, headed by Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi would lead the country for a transitional period until a civilian government takes over.

A constitutional referendum was then approved on 19 March that would ease the process of electing a president.[4]

New electoral law

There were previously concerns that a change to the electoral system would be required, as the existing system would have favoured the National Democratic Party,[5] the party of Mubarak loyalists. The National Democratic Party was dissolved in April, however.

The proposed draft law for the electoral system to be used was revealed on 30 May 2011; controversially, it retained first-past-the-post voting for two thirds of the seats, with only one third of the seats elected by proportional representation [6] (However, later it was changed as to two-thirds, 332 of MPs to be elected proportionally from lists).

On 7 July 2011, the caretaker government approved the new electoral law. It outlined a new 50–50 division between proportional seats and FPTP seats; the minimum age limit for candidates is also to be reduced from 30 to 25.[7]

On 21 July 2011, the SCAF announced:[8]

In late September 2011, again new division was announced, in which only one third of the seats would be elected by an FPTP vote.[9] However, these directly elected MPs could only be independents and not members of political parties; this restriction led to threats of boycotting the election by a wide swath of the political parties which intended to contest the election. The parties stated that their demands for a change in the electoral law would have to be met by 2 October, else they would boycott the election.[10][11] After a meeting with political party leaders on 1 October 2011, the SCAF agreed to allow party members to run for the directly elected seats, set a clearer timetable for the transition to civilian rule and possibly abolish military trials for civilians.[12][13]

On 11 November 2011, an administrative court in Mansoura ruled that former NDP members were not allowed to stand in the election as independent candidates. It was not immediately known whether this ruling would eventually apply to the whole country.[14] On 14 November 2011, the Higher Administrative Court in Cairo overruled the decision and allowed the former NDP members to stand.[15]

Governorate PR

(parties / coalition-lists)

 FPTP

(Individuals)

 Total Seats
# of Districts # of Seats # of Districts # of Seats
Alexandria 2 16 4 8 24
Aswan 1 4 1 2 6
Asyut 2 16 4 8 24
Beheira 2 20 5 10 30
Beni Suef 2 12 3 6 18
Cairo 4 36 9 18 54
Dakahlia 3 24 6 12 36
Damietta 1 8 2 4 12
Faiyum 2 12 3 6 18
Gharbia 2 20 5 10 30
Giza 2 20 5 10 30
Ismailia 1 4 1 2 6
Kafr el-Sheikh 2 12 3 6 18
Luxor 1 4 1 2 6
Matruh 1 4 1 2 6
Minya 2 16 4 8 24
Monufia 2 16 4 8 24
New Valley 1 4 1 2 6
North Sinai 1 4 1 2 6
Port Said 1 4 1 2 6
Qalyubia 2 12 3 6 18
Qena 2 12 3 6 18
Red Sea 1 4 1 2 6
Sharqia 2 20 5 10 30
Sohag 2 20 5 10 30
South Sinai 1 4 1 2 6
Suez 1 4 1 2 6
Total 46 332 83 166 498

Voting process

The election to the People's Assembly will take place on the following dates:[16]

There are a total 508 seats in the Lower house: 498 seats are elected, and 10 seats appointed, in this case, by the Military Council,[18] and usually by the President.

Out of those 498 seats, two-thirds, meaning 332, shall be elected from the parties or coalition-lists using the proportional representation-largest remainder method with 0.5 percent threshold, in 46 districts.[19]

The remaining 166 seats are open to candidates running as individuals, who may or may not be affiliated with political parties, numbering two per each of the 83 districs. Out of these, the new parliament must have at least half "laborers" or "farmers", while the "professionals" should contitute at most half of the parliament. If the winner of one of the two seats that are allocated to a certain district, is a "professional", the second seat in the district shall be handed to a "laborer" or a "farmer". Run-offs are assigned to the individual candidates who did not receive over 50% of the votes in the first round.[18] For a detailed explanation, see.[20]

Additional requirements for parties include listing at least one woman and adopting a specific visual symbol, as an alternative detection to help the illiterate voters.[18] The same voting procedures shall apply to the upper house's election, too [18]

The election for the upper house, the Shura Council ("the Consultative Council") are to follow on 29 January 2012,[21] and will take place in 3 stages as well between between 29 January and 22 Febuery [22] (process was sped due to ongoing protests [23]). Out of a total 270 seats in the Upper House: 180 seats are up for grabs and 90 seats shall be appointed after the presidential election, by the president-elect.[18] Following these elections, the parliament shall select a committee that will draft a new constitution for Egypt. The new constitution shall than be submitted to a referendum. Only then will presidential election be held, "no later than 30 June 2012" according to Hussein Tantawi's statement.

Parties

The Muslim Brotherhood announced on 15 February it would form the Freedom and Justice Party to run in the election.[24] Together with 27 other parties representing diverse political families, the Freedom and Justice Party formed the Democratic Alliance for Egypt. After several defections and entries, the Freedom and Justice Party-dominated coalition settled on 11 parties.[25] The FJP fielded the overwhelming majority of the candidates, and all the Democratic Alliance for Egypt joint candidates are running under the FJP label.

As a reaction to this centre-right alliance, the different liberal democratic and centrist parties intensified cooperation. Five parties drafted a joint statement criticising the current electoral law and proposing a new one.[26] On 16 August, 15 political and social movements, some of which defected from the Democratic Alliance for Egypt, announced the Egyptian Bloc electoral alliance. It consists of liberal, secularist, and centre-left political parties, as well as social organisations and labour unions, and also the traditional Islamic Sufi Liberation Party. Its main objective is to prevent an imminent electoral victory of the Muslim Brotherhood, respectively Freedom and Justice Party. After suffering many defections, the remaining Egyptian Bloc parties are: the Free Egyptians Party, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the National Progressive Unionist Party (Tagammu).[27]

Five socialist parties and movements formed the Coalition of Socialist Forces party alliance to contest the elections jointly. After defecting from the Egyptian Bloc, they formed the core of The Revolution Continues Alliance.[28]

The liberal New Wafd Party announced on 13 June 2011 that it would contest the election in an alliance with the Freedom and Justice Party.[29] The Wafd later decided to abandon its alliance with the Islamists over discrepancies concerning the prospective constitution, and considered joining the new Egyptian Bloc liberal coalition instead.[30] The Wafd ended up running its own independent lists.

The Salafi Al-Nour Party withdrew from the Democratic Alliance for Egypt coalition due to disagreements with the Freedom and Justice Party over its share in the coalition’s joint candidate lists.[31] On 12 August, three Islamic Salafi parties (Nour, and two unregistered groups that later became the Al-Asala Party and the Building and Development Party) announced to run a united candidate list.[32] Their common list is officially called the "Alliance for Egypt", and is unofficially referred to as the "Islamist Bloc".[33] The Al Nour Party fielded the overwhelming majority of the candidates, and all the Alliance for Egypt joint candidates are running under the Al Nour Party label.

The Al-Wasat Party, a moderate Islamic faction of the Muslim Brotherhood, was officially approved as a party on 19 February, fifteen years after its foundation. After withdrawing from the Democratic Alliance for Egypt, it formed an electoral coalition with the Al-Nahda Party and the Al-Riyada Party, both of which were founded by former members of the Muslim Brotherhood.[34] The Al-Wasat Party fielded the overwhelming majority of the coalition candidates, all of which are running under the Al-Wasat Party label.

Some analysts voiced concerns that former members of the ruling NDP might gain a lot of influence in the newly elected parliament. Among the parties identified to have a strong base in former NDP members were:[35][36]

Monitors

The Supreme Council of the Armed Forces announced that it would bar foreign monitors because of what it claimed was the preservation of Egyptian sovereignty.[38] However, it would welcome foreign "Observers".[39] Groups such as NDI, The Carter Center, the International Republican Institute and South African, Turkish, Polish and Danish groups have taken part. Alongside 300 foreign civil society representatives there are 25,000 accredited monitors and a lot more concerned citizens who have pledged to alert the organizers regarding any abuses they encounter.[40] Additionally, many egyptians have turned to citizen monitoring through social media such as Facebook, Twitter and YouTube, uploading cited violations or turnouts.

Opinion polls

A 9–20 March poll survey amongst 615 voting age Egyptians by the International Peace Institute (IPI) showed that New Wafd Party, the oldest liberal party, had the support of 23 percent, 12 percent of Egyptian voters would vote for the Freedom and Justice Party, and 10 percent still supported the now dissolved National Democratic Party.[41][42]

A Gallup poll from June 2011 showed that the Muslim Brotherhood had the support of 15 percent of the survey group, with over 60% of the people undecided.[43] The dissolved National Democratic Party would have scored 10 percent, the liberal New Wafd Party 9 percent, and the newly launched Wasat Party 5 percent.

July 7 public opinion survey by Al Jazeera showed following voting intentions: 46% of those polled indicated they would vote for the Muslim Brotherhood, running under the Freedom and Justice Party banner, in the November parliamentary elections. An additional 27% would support the Salafist-backed Nour Party. The Wasat party, which represents a moderate islamism, came in third with 6%. The youth-based Hizb ElAdl, or Justice Party, was the top ranking secularist group, with only 5%.[44]

July 26 survey by Newsweek/The Daily Beast showed following results: 29% Not sure/Undecided, 17% Freedom and Justice Party, 11% Al-Wafd Party, 7% National Democratic Party, 7% Free Egyptians Party, 5% Justice Party, 4% Freedom Egypt Party, 3% Egyptian Current Party, 3% Dignity Party, 2% Egyptian Labor Party, 2% El-Ghad Party, 2% Tagammu Party, 1% AlWasat Party, 1% Democratic Front Party, 7% Other.[45]

An August 2011 survey by the Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS) and Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI) showed the following results: Egypt can expect a large turnout of voters in the upcoming parliamentary elections – more than 80% say that they are likely to vote, only 17.7% would not go to the polls. More than half of the voters (57.1%) are still undecided. The Muslim Brotherhood’s “Freedom and Justice Party” has support from 31.5% of the decided voters. However, the ‘Freedom and Justice Party’ splits the electorate in half – 39% of the voters view the party unfavourably vs. 36% in the favourable group. The political parties in general suffer from a lack of trust from the electorate – only the Revolutionary Youth Coalition has a strong favourable/unfavourable (44% vs. 24%) standing. The party has a double digit support of 17.2%. The Wafd Party received 14.8%, Free Egyptians 7.5%, Nour 6.0%, Egyptian Social Democratic Party 5.2%, Nasserites 3.7%, Justice Party 2.6%, Tagammu 2.2%. Eleven other parties were also taken into account by the surveyors.[46][47]

The second national voter survey by APSSC and DEDI indicated that 39% of voters have already decided they would choose the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) in the upcoming parliamentary elections, while 20% voted in favour of the Wafd Party and 6.8% chose the Salafist Nour Party. According to the poll, 55% of those surveyed remain undecided.[48] The third APSSC/DEDI surveys, in November, indicates that 49% of voters had already decided to whom to vote, 35.7% of which chose the FJP, versus 26.2% that choose the Wafd.[49]

Conducted/
Published		 Polling Organisation/
Client		 Sample size FJP Wafd Nour FEP Adl Wasat ESDP Youth Ex-NDP other undecided
March 2011 IPI 615 12% 23% - - - - - - 10% 20% 27%
June 2011 IPI[50] 800 12% 12% 3% 1% 1% 2% - - 6% 14% 49%
June 2011 Gallup  ? 15% 9%  ?  ?  ? 5%  ?  ? 10%  ? >60%
July 2011 Al Jazeera  ? 46%  ? 27%  ? 5% 6%  ?  ?  ?  ?  ?
July 2011 Newsweek/
Daily Beast		 1,008 17% 11% - 7% 5% 1%  ? - 7% 14%  ?
August 2011 APSSC/DEDI 2,400 31.5% 14.8% 6.0% 7.5% 2.6% 1.6% 5.2% 17.2% 0.4% 13.2% 57.1%
October 2011 APSSC/DEDI[48] 2,400 39.0% 20.0% 6.8% 6.0% 4.7% 1.0% 0.6% 2.0% 2.8% 17.0% 38%
November 2011 APSSC/
DEDI[49]		 2,400 35.7% 26.2% 8.9% 3.9% 5.2% 2.1% 2.0% 0.4% 5.2% 10.9% 51%

Election

Voter turnout

About 50 million people are eligible to vote out of a population in excess of 85 million - with candidates from 50 registered political parties.[51]

First phase

In the first phase of election, the voter turnout was 59%.[52]

First phase, 28–29 November

Large crowds turned out at the polling stations for the first stage of the polls. Such a turnout had caused the election committee to extend the hours of polling by two hours to end at 21:00.[53] Even a majority of the protesters in Tahrir square who have been at the sit-in after deadly clashes a week earlier, had left their sit-in to join the polls before returning to Tahrir Square, although some boycotted the election.

Even before the government gave the official figures, the FJP's observers estimated a turnout of about 30 to 32 percent, for the first day, in the 9 governorates that voted in the first phase, while in Cairo, turnout was reported at about 27 percent. An "exceptionally high turnout" was also reported in the governorate of Asyut, especially among women.[54] On the second day of the first round, independent monitors placed the turnout at over 50 percent, while a spokesman for the military said that it could exceed 70 percent, maybe even reaching 80 percent. Abroad, turnout was around 60–70 percent according to the Egyptian foreign minister,[55] and when reading the official results the head of the election committee stated that the overall turnout was 62%, "the highest number since the days of Pharaoh."[56]

First phase run-offs, 5–6 December

No official numbers have been given yet, but the estimation is that the turnout were relatively low, and according to Al Jazeera, one of the reasons may be that the Egyptians were not given a day off as they were given on 28–29 November.[57]

Second phase

Second phase, 14-15 December

Early reports on the voting turnout indicate a high turnout of long waiting lines,[58] a repeat of the first PR phase voting day.[59][60] The turnout for the first round was 65%.[61]

Second phase, 21–22 December

Turnout for the run-offs of the second phase was 43%.[61]

Third phase

Result

Many individual candidates, during the first phase, did not receive the required 50% vote, and therefore faced a run-off on December 5. Even before the official results for each party or coalition-list were released, it was thought, by various international channels as well as leaks from people involved in the count, that the Freedom and Justice Party, led by the Muslim Brotherhood, is expected to receive around 40% of the vote and al-Nour would get between 15-30 percent.[62]

In the second phase of the election, in many analysts predicted a similar result as that of the previous phase due to the more conservative, poor, and rural nature of the second phase electoral districts.[63] State-television reported the initial result, with the FJP in the lead and al-Nour following in second place.[64][65]

First phase

First phase assigned seats

  FJP (49%)
  Al Nour (20%)
  Egyptian Bloc (10%)
  Wafd (7%)
  Revolution Continues (4%)
  Al-Wasat (3%)
  Other (7%)

The number of PR seats shown in this table are unofficial calculations of the Jadaliyya.com website using the largest remainder method.[51] Unofficial results are italicised:

e • d 
Party Ideology PR Votes PR Vote % PR Seats3 FPTP Seats4 Total Seats Seat %
Freedom and Justice1 Muslim Brotherhood Islamist 3,565,092 36.6 40 33 73 49%
Al-Nour 2 Salafi Islamist 2,371,713 24.4 26 4 30 20%
Egyptian Bloc Liberal democrats 1,299,819 13.4 13 2 15 10%
Al-Wafd National liberals 690,077 7.1 10 1 11 7%
Al-Wasat Moderate Islamist[68] 415,590 4.3 4 0 4 3%
Revolution Continues Leftists 335,947 3.5 4 2 6 4%
Reform and Development Liberals 185,138 1.9 2 0 2
National Party of Egypt Former NDP Members 153,429 1.6 1 1 2
Freedom Former NDP Members 136,784 1.4 1 0 1
Adl Centrists 76,769 0.8 0 1 1
Conservatives Former NDP Members 76,743 0.8 0 0 0
Egyptian Citizen Former NDP Members 67,602 0.7 1 1 2
Democratic Peace Party Liberal Democracy 51,704 0.5 0 0 0
Other/Independents ---- 308,106 3.2 0 3 3
Total[51] 9,734,513 100 102 48 150 100

Notes: 1Freedom and Justice list includes candidates from the parties of the Democratic Alliance for Egypt. 2Al-Nour's list includes candidates from the parties of the Alliance for Egypt ("Islamist Bloc"). 3Preliminary results, includes all but Cairo's party-list district #1 (10 seats), annulled by the Higher Elections Commission, and scheduled to re-vote on 10-11 January. 4Includes all but two races in Cairo’s district #1, two races in Alexandria's district #3, two races in Assiut district #2 and two races in Assiut's district #3 (a total of 8 seats), scheduled for a re-vote on 10-11 January.[51]

Second phase

Second phase assigned seats

  FJP (48%)
  Al Nour (28%)
  Wafd (8%)
  Egyptian Bloc (6%)
  Al-Wasat (2%)
  Reform and Development (2%)
  Other (6%)

For the second phase, various secular parties, including the Al-Wafd, Adl, Egyptian Bloc and Revolution Continues, attempted to coordinate their efforts over some FPTP seats.[69]

On 24 December, 2011, official results were announced:[61][70][71][72][51]

e • d 
Party Ideology PR Votes PR Vote % PR Seats1 FPTP Seats2 Total Seats Seat %
Freedom and Justice Muslim Brotherhood Islamist 4,058,498 36.3 35 36 71 48%
Al Nour Salafi Islamist 3,216,430 28.8 28 13 41 28%
Al-Wafd National liberals 1,077,244 9.6 11 0 11 8%
Egyptian Bloc Liberal democrats 785,084 7.0 8 0 8 6%
Al-Wasat Moderate Islamist[68] 368,375 3.3 3 0 3 2%
Reform and Development Liberals 231,713 2.1 2 1 3 2%
National Party of Egypt Former NDP Members 169,662 1.5 1 0 1 <1%
Revolution Continues Leftists 161,594 1.4 1 0 1 <1%
Egyptian Citizen Former NDP Members 151,314 1.4 1 0 1 <1%
Conservatives Former NDP Members 139,100 1.2 0 0 0 0%
Democratic peace Liberal democracy 121,694 1.1 0 0 0 0%
Freedom Former NDP Members 97,165 0.9 0 0 0 0%
Adl Centrists 46,681 0.4 0 1 1 <1%
Other/Independents ---- 2 5 7 5%
Total[51] 11,173,818 92 56 148

Notes: 1 Does not include the postponed or invalidated results of Aswan, Beheira (district #2), Sohag (district #2), and Menoufia (district #1). 2 Does not include the invalidated results of Shaqiya's districts #5 and #2.[51]

Third phase

e • d 
Party Ideology PR Votes PR Vote % PR Seats FPTP Seats Total Seats Seat %
Freedom and Justice Party Muslim Brotherhood Islamist
Al Nour Party Salafi Islamist
Egyptian Bloc Liberal democrats
New Wafd Party National liberals
Al-Wasat Party Moderate Islamist[68]
Revolution Continues Leftists
Reform and Development Liberals
National Party of Egypt Former NDP Members
Freedom Party Former NDP Members
Justice Party (Adl) Centrists
Conservatives Party Former NDP Members
Egyptian Citizen Former NDP Members
Democratic peace Liberal democracy
Other ----
Total

PR per governorate and district

The PR votes were released by the official election comity.[73] Seats were computed by Jadaliyya.com. [51]

Note: Vote percentage reported for "Others" and "Former NDP Parties" is for those parties that won seats

Violence

A day after polls closed during the second phase of election to the lower house, clashes broke out again in front of the parliament and cabinet building in Cairo between security forces and several hundred demonstrators, who protested against the appointment of a new prime minister by the military council and against the arrest and beating of one of the protesters theres[74]

Reactions

The commander of the military police was quoted as saying that the ruling military council was not taking sides during the second phase of the election to the lower house and "stands at an equal distance" from all the political groups contesting the elections: "The army has no interest to be served by siding with liberals or the Brotherhood or leftists or others."[75]

Following reports that the FJP was likely leading in the first round of the election, with al-Nour in second place, the FJP denied it would seek an alliance with Al Nour.[76]

References

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